+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled
Niinimaki
Orthodox Submission wrestling
VS
Gaethje
Orthodox Striker
69" Reach 70"
1.91 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
58% Strike Defense 51%
2.97 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
33% Takedown Defense 74%
Win Probability
Niinimaki
49%
Gaethje
51%
Based on stats, win rate & tier
Key Advantages
— Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Niinimaki Strike Defense —
— Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Niinimaki Grappling Output —
— Win Rate Gaethje ▲
Style Matchup
Submission wrestling VS Striker
"Tactical wildcard matchup — Both fighters bring unique tools to the cage. Adaptability and game planning will be key."
Niinimaki Tactics
Elite"Tom Niinimaki is a highly skilled, well-rounded fighter with a strong record, making him a top contender in his division."
Gaethje Tactics
Veteran"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."
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