+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled
Shirai
Orthodox Striker
VS
Gaethje
Orthodox Striker
N/A Reach 70"
1.02 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
55% Strike Defense 51%
N/A Takedowns/15Min 0.33
N/A Takedown Defense 74%
Win Probability
Shirai
40%
Gaethje
60%
Based on stats, win rate & tier
Key Advantages
— Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
— Win Rate Gaethje ▲
Style Matchup
Striker VS Striker
"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."
Shirai Tactics
Journeyman"Yuya Shirai is a streaky striker with impressive accuracy, but his extremely low-volume striking and lack of grappling skills limit his upside."
Gaethje Tactics
Veteran"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."