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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Gugerty

Orthodox Striker
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
71" Reach 70"
1.25 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
58% Strike Defense 51%
2.13 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
50% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Gugerty
45%
Gaethje
55%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Gugerty Strike Defense
Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Gugerty Grappling Output
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Striker VS Striker

"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."

Gugerty Tactics

Veteran

"Shannon Gugerty is a seasoned veteran with a well-rounded skillset, but his grappling defense and submission average are areas of concern that could be exploited by more skilled grapplers."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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