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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Riley

Orthodox Striker
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
69" Reach 70"
2.55 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
46% Strike Defense 51%
N/A Takedowns/15Min 0.33
42% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Riley
49%
Gaethje
51%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Riley Win Rate

Style Matchup

Striker VS Striker

"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."

Riley Tactics

Prospect

"Luke Riley is an undefeated prospect with impressive striking accuracy, but his limited experience and grappling vulnerabilities make him a work in progress."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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