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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Lawrence

Orthodox Striker
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
67" Reach 70"
3.84 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
67% Strike Defense 51%
0.72 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
73% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Lawrence
47%
Gaethje
53%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Reach Advantage Gaethje ▲
Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Lawrence Strike Defense
▲ Lawrence Grappling Output
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Striker VS Striker

"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."

Lawrence Tactics

Prospect

"Justin Lawrence is a raw striker with decent accuracy, but his grappling skills are non-existent and his defense is a concern."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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