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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Burns

Orthodox Brazilian jiu-jitsu
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
71" Reach 70"
3.16 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
52% Strike Defense 51%
2.04 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
53% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Burns
49%
Gaethje
51%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Burns Grappling Output
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Brazilian jiu-jitsu VS Striker

"Tactical wildcard matchup — Both fighters bring unique tools to the cage. Adaptability and game planning will be key."

Burns Tactics

Elite

"Gilbert Burns is an elite grappler with a strong record, high takedown average, and decent striking, making him a top contender with a well-rounded skillset."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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