+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled
Nelson
Southpaw Striker
VS
Gaethje
Orthodox Striker
70" Reach 70"
1.38 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
61% Strike Defense 51%
1.31 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
54% Takedown Defense 74%
Win Probability
Nelson
42%
Gaethje
58%
Based on stats, win rate & tier
Key Advantages
— Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Nelson Strike Defense —
— Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Nelson Grappling Output —
— Win Rate Gaethje ▲
Style Matchup
Striker VS Striker
"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."
Nelson Tactics
Journeyman"Shane Nelson is a limited striker with decent volume, but his grappling skills are underdeveloped and his defense is a concern."
Gaethje Tactics
Veteran"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."
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