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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Nelson

Southpaw Striker
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
70" Reach 70"
1.38 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
61% Strike Defense 51%
1.31 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
54% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Nelson
42%
Gaethje
58%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Nelson Strike Defense
Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Nelson Grappling Output
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Striker VS Striker

"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."

Nelson Tactics

Journeyman

"Shane Nelson is a limited striker with decent volume, but his grappling skills are underdeveloped and his defense is a concern."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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