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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Vogel

Orthodox Striker
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
71" Reach 70"
4.47 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
65% Strike Defense 51%
1 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
N/A Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Vogel
47%
Gaethje
53%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Vogel Strike Defense
▲ Vogel Grappling Output
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Striker VS Striker

"Striker vs Striker — High-octane standup battle expected. Reach, volume, and defensive footwork will separate these two."

Vogel Tactics

Prospect

"Mateo Vogel is a young and aggressive striker with impressive volume and accuracy, but his grappling skills are underdeveloped and leave him open to takedowns."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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