+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled
Mariano
Switch Unknown
VS
Gaethje
Orthodox Striker
76" Reach 70"
0.25 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
43% Strike Defense 51%
N/A Takedowns/15Min 0.33
28% Takedown Defense 74%
Win Probability
Mariano
37%
Gaethje
63%
Based on stats, win rate & tier
Key Advantages
▲ Mariano Reach Advantage —
— Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
— Strike Defense Gaethje ▲
— Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
— Win Rate Gaethje ▲
Style Matchup
Unknown VS Striker
"Tactical wildcard matchup — Both fighters bring unique tools to the cage. Adaptability and game planning will be key."
Mariano Tactics
Unknown"Marcos Mariano's limited striking and grappling skills make it difficult to assess his overall fighting style and potential."
Gaethje Tactics
Veteran"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."