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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Larkin

Orthodox Kickboxing, Kung Fu, BJJ
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
72" Reach 70"
3.53 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
63% Strike Defense 51%
0.27 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
79% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Larkin
51%
Gaethje
49%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

▲ Larkin Reach Advantage
Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Larkin Strike Defense
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Kickboxing, Kung Fu, BJJ VS Striker

"Tactical wildcard matchup — Both fighters bring unique tools to the cage. Adaptability and game planning will be key."

Larkin Tactics

Elite

"Lorenz Larkin is a highly skilled striker with exceptional striking numbers, but his grappling skills are underdeveloped, making him a one-dimensional fighter."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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