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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Merritt

Orthodox Unknown
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
N/A Reach 70"
1.53 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
66% Strike Defense 51%
N/A Takedowns/15Min 0.33
68% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Merritt
48%
Gaethje
52%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
▲ Merritt Strike Defense
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Unknown VS Striker

"Tactical wildcard matchup — Both fighters bring unique tools to the cage. Adaptability and game planning will be key."

Merritt Tactics

Prospect

"Joe Merritt is a prospect with a limited record, but his striking metrics suggest he may be a skilled striker, although his grappling metrics are somewhat limited."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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