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Alpha Contender

VS

Bravo Contender

+/-1 Division Delta Restriction Enabled

Oliveira

Orthodox Brazilian jiu-jitsu
VS

Gaethje

Orthodox Striker
74" Reach 70"
3.23 Strikes Landed/Min 6.48
48% Strike Defense 51%
2.29 Takedowns/15Min 0.33
54% Takedown Defense 74%

Win Probability

Oliveira
50%
Gaethje
50%

Based on stats, win rate & tier

Key Advantages

▲ Oliveira Reach Advantage
Striking Volume Gaethje ▲
Takedown Defense Gaethje ▲
▲ Oliveira Grappling Output
Win Rate Gaethje ▲

Style Matchup

Brazilian jiu-jitsu VS Striker

"Tactical wildcard matchup — Both fighters bring unique tools to the cage. Adaptability and game planning will be key."

Oliveira Tactics

Elite

"Charles Oliveira is a highly skilled and well-rounded fighter with a strong striking game and exceptional grappling skills, making him a top-level champion."

Gaethje Tactics

Veteran

"Justin Gaethje is a veteran striker with a high-volume and aggressive style, and is considered one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division."

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